Business Prospects after the War

Ajit Gunawardene, Deputy Chairman of John Keells Holdings talks to Bloomberg TV on the business prospects of a post-war Sri Lanka.

link:

The Rajapakse Doctrine

Move over Bush, the TIME has a new piece on the Rajapakse doctrine of counterinsurgency. The whole thing is worth a read. Below is a key excerpt:

The main principles [of the Rajapakse doctrine of counterinsurgency] are:

Brute Force Works
Modern military wisdom says sheer force doesn’t quell insurgencies, and that in the long run political and economic power-sharing along with social reconciliation are the only ways to end the fighting. But the Sri Lankan army eventually broke down the Tigers in an unrelenting military campaign, the final phase of which lasted more than two years. That sort of sustained offensive hasn’t been tried anywhere, in decades.

Negotiations Don’t
After numerous attempts at mediation — most notably by Norway — led to nothing, Rajapaksa basically abandoned the pursuit of a negotiated solution. Once the military had the upper hand, there was little effort to treaty with the Tigers.

Collateral Damage Is Acceptable
In the final months of fighting, the Sri Lankan military offensive hardly differentiated between civilian and Tiger targets. Refugees fleeing the fighting said thousands of innocents were being killed in the army’s bombardments. Modern militaries typically halt hostilities when large numbers of civilians are killed. The Sri Lankan army barely paused. Reva Bhalla, director of analysis at Stratfor, a global intelligence firm, says Rajapaksa’s “disregard for civilian casualties” was a key to the success of the military operation.

Critics Should Shut Up — Or Else
For a democracy, Sri Lanka’s recent record on press freedom is an embarrassment. Journalists who dared question the government (and not just over the military campaign) have been threatened, roughed up, or worse. The Jan. 8 murder of Lasantha Wickrematunge, a crusading editor — and TIME contributor — was an especially low point. In recent months, as the fighting intensified, journalists and international observers were kept well away, ensuring very little reporting on the military’s harsh tactics and the civilian casualties.

Lack of accurate reporting from the war front was one reason why the international outcry against the military’s heavy-handedness was so muted — especially in the U.S. Rajapaksa also benefited from the post-9/11 global consensus that insurgent groups using terror tactics “can no longer call themselves freedom fighters,” according to Daniel Markey, a South Asia expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. “The Tigers didn’t understand this, and paid a significant price.”

That may be one lesson insurgencies worldwide can learn from the Tigers’ downfall.

The whole thing on TIME.

On a somewhat related note, and if you are into this sort of thing, take a look at this superb article on Tehelka on Prabhakaran’s rise and fall.

UN statements on Sri Lanka

First, the official statement by the Security Council President, Vitaly Churkin (Russian Federation). Video is below, UN has the full statement. 

link:

Miliband other European delegates from the UN Security Council made their own statements. The video for that too, is included below.

link:

Obama on the Sri Lankan Crisis

President Obama asked the LTTE to surrender and the Sri Lankan government to take greater measures to protect civilian lives . Huffington post has a report based on the statement. The Whitehouse on Youtube also has the statement up, which is included below. If you want only the relevant part, see the same statement on politico. 

There are competing views as to how Obama has handled the Sri Lankan crisis, Obama’s first since assuming office.  See the recent articles on TIME, accusing Obama of not handling it well, and on TNR, commending the administration for handling it well.

Update : Sri Lanka Ambassador to the US, Jaliya Wickramasuriya responds to questions raised on the Obama satement to Aljazera

Conflict Watch, Sri Lanka — Assorted Links

We found the following, interesting..

• Pakistan and Sri Lanka, a Tale of Two Counterinsurgencies  (NYT Blog)
• UN says International scrutiny needed in Sri Lanka (Relif Web)
• LTTE is using India, like Taliban is using Pakistan. (TOI news report) and the report by stratfor, a private intelligence agency on the Tigers.
• Fighting Terrorism at a too high price — Arvind Adiga (The Daily Beast)
• Life as a female Tamil Tiger guerilla relived by one of first female soldiers (Telegrapgh)
• M.I.A. calls on Oprah to highlight the plight of SL Tamils. (Village Voice , her own blog post)
• Vanni Emergency Situation — OCHA Report

More links we have missed? Put them up in comments.

Riz Khan on Sri Lanka

AlJazera’s Riz Khan show focused on Sri Lanka this week. The panel consists of Eric Solheim, Francis Boyle (A law professor) and Nirj Deva, the Sri Lankan-British member of the European Parliament.

Part 1:

Part 2:

Is the LTTE finished? and is the war really over?

Vikalpa has an excellent video play list on youtube. Commentators includes, Nishantha Wanasinghe of JHU, Rohan Samarajiva (Lirneasia), Minister Thissa Whitharana, Victor Ivan, Dr.Nirmal Dewasiri (University of Colombo), Mr.S.G. Punchihewa, Wickramabahu Karunarathna and Vasudeva Nanayakkara.

The JHU Video is below. Others can be seen in the playlist.

WSJ on Sri Lanka — Without growth the war can’t be won

Razeen Sally, a professor of  international political economy at the London School of Economics has a piece on Sri Lanka in today’s Wall Street Journal on Sri Lanka. Sally claims that without market-oriented reforms and liberalization, Sri Lanka can’t achieve it’s potential with or without the war.  

Read the whole thing . A choice excerpt:

A widely shared sentiment in Sri Lanka is that military victory will translate into peace and fast development. This is wishful thinking. Without a policy overhaul, Sri Lanka faces either slow material decline or something worse, especially with a bleak global economic outlook. The short-term imperative is to allow the exchange rate to devalue to a market-determined level, cut public subsidies and make fiscal and monetary policy more transparent.

Beyond that, trade tariff hikes should be reversed, with accompanying simplification of trade and foreign-investment measures. There needs to be deep public-sector reform; a move to market pricing for oil and electricity; and, not least, big cuts in the defense budget. Drastic domestic deregulation is also imperative to cut the high cost of doing business. In the longer-term, Sri Lanka needs to revamp its rotten political culture and public institutions. [WSJ]

Obama mentions Tissa

In advance of Press Freedom Day, President Obama expressed his support for the ” brave men and women of the press who labor to expose truth”. AFP has a report on the statement, below are some choice excerpts.

US President Barack Obama said Friday his administration was “especially concerned” about the detention of two US journalists in North Korea and one in Iran.

“We are… especially concerned about the citizens from our own country currently under detention abroad: individuals such as Roxana Saberi in Iran, and Euna Lee and Laura Ling in North Korea,” Obama said in a statement marking World Press Freedom Day on May 3. [..]

Obama decried the jailing or active harassment of journalists that have taken place “in every corner of the globe,” including China, Cuba, Eritrea, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan and Zimbabwe.

“Emblematic examples of this distressing reality are figures like J.S. Tissainayagam in Sri Lanka, or Shi Tao and Hu Jia in China,” he said.

Obama noted that since World Press Freedom Day was first celebrated in 1993, 692 journalists have been killed as they worked “to expose truth and enhance accountability around the world.” [AFP]

 

UN Briefing on the Humanitarian situation (1 May 2009)

Video:

Trascript:

United Nations, New York, 1 May 2009 – Daily Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General. Over Sri Lanka, security forces continue their operations in the northern conflict zone. Heavy fighting is reported.
The United Nations Office of the Coordination for Humanitarian Affairs says as of today, more than 172,000 people have crossed out of the conflict zone, mostly in the last 10 days. 170,000 are accommodated at temporary camps in 38 sites in four districts of the north and east of the country, while around 2,000 wounded and their caregivers are in hospitals.
There have been no new arrivals at the Omanthai screening point in the last 48 hours, and the Government of Sri Lanka informs us that none are in transit.
We believe that 50,000 people remain in the conflict zone.

Congestion in the camps remains one of the most serious concerns, as shelter in the camps remains inadequate. In Trincomalee, the UN refugee agency has started setting up tents, while UNICEF has been working on the provision of sanitation there, while also started building wells.
Despite repeated calls by the United Nations and the International Red Cross, they still have no access to the screening point at Kilinochchi.
The UN Refugee Agency also says a second team of UNHCR emergency experts is scheduled to arrive today in Sri Lanka. The team of four includes specialists on community services, protection and other essential field functions. This follows the earlier deployment of five UNHCR experts to Sri Lankas north in February and March.
While thousands of displaced people continue to arrive to Vavuniya, Jaffna and Trincomalee, others are returning to their homes in the first Government organized return operation in northern Sri Lanka in years. The area to where they are returning was for a long time the frontline in the fighting between Government forces and LTTE rebels.

UNHCR says it welcomes these returns as a positive development. While the number of those returning to their homes is still small it is an important starting point, it says. The United Nations hopes that returns to other areas in northern Sri Lanka will also be possible soon.