The Indian Intervention

TOI has a report on the latest development from the Indian situation,

All the seven DMK ministers in the UPA government are expected to submit their resignation letters to party leader and Tamil Nadu chief minister M Karunanidhi on Friday to mount pressure on the Manmohan Singh regime to intervene in Sri Lanka.  [..]

A senior Tamil Nadu minister told TOI that the seven ministers — cabinet ministers T R Baalu and A Raja, and ministers of state — S S Palanimanickam, Subbulakshmi Jagadeesan, S Regupathy, K Venkatapathy and Radhika Selvi — would hand over post-dated letters addressed to Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee to Karunanidhi for quitting their parliamentary seats. [..]

“We will have no option but to quit if the Centre fails to take strong measures to stop the killing of our brethren in the island. We will have no hesitation in stepping down to show our solidarity with the beleaguered Tamil people,” the minister said. He added that the DMK chief would forward the letters after watching the developments.

Sources said the DMK is thinking of collecting relief materials like food, clothes and medicine and send them through the Red Cross to Tamil civilians in Sri Lanka’s north, if the Centre failed to do so.  [TOI]

Usually, the only place where Tamil Nadu politics is important other than Tamil Nadu, is probably Sri Lanka. That’s no longer the case. After the fallout from the Indo-US Nuclear deal, Manmohan Singh’s UPA government lost the support of the left-parties, and barely managed to survive a confidence vote in July for which he had to depend on the the support of the DMK and other TN Parties.

The Hindu explains the possible repercussions if the TN parties actually pulls out of the central government as per the resolution at the recent All-party meeting in Tamil Nadu:

There are 39 MPs in the Lok Sabha from Tamil Nadu and one from Puducherry. Leaders of all the parties in the State that are represented in the Lok Sabha, barring the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam which has the support of two members, agreed to abide by the resolution.

If the MPs from the State and Puducherry resign, the United Progressive Alliance government, which survived the confidence vote on July 22 by a margin of just 19 votes, would be reduced to a minority. The resolution binds senior members of the Union Cabinet including Finance Minister P. Chidambaram, Union Communications and Information Technology Minister A. Raja, Shipping and Road Transport Minister T.R. Baalu and Health Minister Anbumani Ramadoss. [The Hindu]

A Ceasefire, as demanded by the TN parties will be highly unlikely.  New Delhi may have a lot of influence over Colombo, but it seems, doesn’t have power. A dramatic 1990s-type intervention is extremely unlikely, given India’s own domestic problems with terror and it’s past experiences.

— Deane.

Addendum: More analysis on Rediff : on the DMK ministers,  On Vaiko’s semniar and on India’s Military Aid to Sri Lanka.

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One response to “The Indian Intervention

  1. Pingback: The Indian Intervention, a round up « In Mutiny

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